Climate change could cause the breakdown of the hydrological cycle by 2040 leading to the commoditisation of water, while severe disruptions to trade force countries to radically shorten supply chains and engage in a costly reshoring of key industries.

This eventuality forms part of one of three plausible “explorative” scenarios detailed in a new report: The Future of Trade in a Net Zero World.

More than 80 expert participants worked over the course of a year using “strategic foresight” to understand the role of trade in a world aiming for net zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century, the global goal set by the Paris Agreement on climate change.

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